`"hhh4"`

Models`hhh4_simulate_plot.Rd`

Arrays of simulated counts from `simulate.hhh4`

can be
visualized as final size boxplots, individual or average time series,
or fan charts (using the fanplot package).
An `aggregate`

-method is also available.

```
# S3 method for hhh4sims
plot(x, ...)
# S3 method for hhh4sims
aggregate(x, units = TRUE, time = FALSE, ..., drop = FALSE)
as.hhh4simslist(x, ...)
# S3 method for hhh4simslist
plot(x, type = c("size", "time", "fan"), ...,
groups = NULL, par.settings = list())
# S3 method for hhh4simslist
aggregate(x, units = TRUE, time = FALSE, ..., drop = FALSE)
plotHHH4sims_size(x, horizontal = TRUE, trafo = NULL, observed = TRUE,
names = base::names(x), ...)
plotHHH4sims_time(x, average = mean, individual = length(x) == 1,
conf.level = if (individual) 0.95 else NULL,
matplot.args = list(), initial.args = list(), legend = length(x) > 1,
xlim = NULL, ylim = NULL, add = FALSE, ...)
plotHHH4sims_fan(x, which = 1,
fan.args = list(), observed.args = list(), initial.args = list(),
means.args = NULL, key.args = NULL, xlim = NULL, ylim = NULL,
add = FALSE, xaxis = list(), ...)
```

- x
an object of class

`"hhh4sims"`

(as resulting from the`simulate`

-method for`"hhh4"`

models if`simplify = TRUE`

was set), or an`"hhh4simslist"`

, i.e., a list of such simulations potentially obtained from different model fits (using the same simulation period).- type
a character string indicating the summary plot to produce.

- ...
further arguments passed to methods.

- groups
an optional factor to produce stratified plots by groups of units. The special setting

`groups = TRUE`

is a convenient shortcut for one plot by unit.- par.settings
a list of graphical parameters for

`par`

. Sensible defaults for`mfrow`

,`mar`

and`las`

will be applied unless overridden or`!is.list(par.settings)`

.- horizontal
a logical indicating if the boxplots of the final size distributions should be horizontal (the default).

- trafo
an optional transformation function from the scales package, e.g.,

`sqrt_trans`

.- observed
a logical indicating if a line and axis value for the observed size of the epidemic should be added to the plot. Alternatively, a list with graphical parameters can be specified to modify the default values.

- names
a character vector of names for

`x`

.- average
scalar-valued function to apply to the simulated counts at each time point.

- individual
a logical indicating if the individual simulations should be shown as well.

- conf.level
a scalar in (0,1), which determines the level of the pointwise quantiles obtained from the simulated counts at each time point. A value of

`NULL`

disables the confidence interval.- matplot.args
a list of graphical parameters for

`matlines`

.- initial.args
if a list (of graphical parameters for

`lines`

), a bar for the initial number of cases is added to the plot.- legend
a logical, a character vector (providing names for

`x`

), or a list of parameters for`legend`

.- xlim,ylim
vectors of length 2 determining the axis limits.

- add
a logical indicating if the (mean) simulated time series or the fan chart, respectively, should be added to an existing plot.

- which
a single integer or a character string selecting the model in

`x`

for which to produce the fan chart. This is only relevant if`x`

is a`"hhh4simslist"`

of simulations from multiple models. Defaults to the first model.- fan.args
a list of graphical parameters for the

`fan`

, e.g., to employ a different`colorRampPalette`

as`fan.col`

, or to enable contour lines via`ln`

.- observed.args
if a list (of graphical parameters for

`lines`

), the originally observed counts are added to the plot.- means.args
if a list (of graphical parameters for

`lines`

), the point forecasts are added to the plot (by default as a white line within the fan).- key.args
if a list, a color key (in

`fan`

's`"boxfan"`

-style) is added to the fan chart. The list may include positioning parameters`start`

(the x-position) and`ylim`

(the y-range of the color key),`space`

to modify the width of the boxfan, and`rlab`

to modify the labels. The color key is disabled by default. An alternative way of labeling the quantiles is via the argument`ln`

in`fan.args`

, see the Examples.- xaxis
if a list of arguments for

`addFormattedXAxis`

, that function is used to draw the time axis, otherwise a default x-axis is drawn.- units
a logical indicating aggregation over units. Can also be a factor (or something convertible to a factor using

`as.factor`

) to aggregate groups of units.- time
a logical indicating if the counts should be summed over the whole simulation period.

- drop
a logical indicating if the unit dimension and the

`"hhh4sims"`

(or`"hhh4simslist"`

) class should be dropped after aggregating over (groups of) units.

Sebastian Meyer

```
### univariate example
data("salmAllOnset")
## fit a hhh4 model to the first 13 years
salmModel <- list(end = list(f = addSeason2formula(~1 + t)),
ar = list(f = ~1), family = "NegBin1", subset = 2:678)
salmFit <- hhh4(salmAllOnset, salmModel)
## simulate the next 20 weeks ahead
salmSims <- simulate(salmFit, nsim = 300, seed = 3, subset = 678 + seq_len(20),
y.start = observed(salmAllOnset)[678,])
## compare final size distribution to observed value
summary(aggregate(salmSims, time = TRUE)) # summary of simulated values
plot(salmSims, type = "size")
## individual and average simulated time series with a confidence interval
plot(salmSims, type = "time", main = "20-weeks-ahead simulation")
## fan chart based on the quantiles of the simulated counts at each time point
## point forecasts are represented by a white line within the fan
if (requireNamespace("fanplot")) {
plot(salmSims, type = "fan", main = "20-weeks-ahead simulation",
fan.args = list(ln = 1:9/10), means.args = list())
}
### multivariate example
data("measlesWeserEms")
## fit a hhh4 model to the first year
measlesModel <- list(
end = list(f = addSeason2formula(~1), offset = population(measlesWeserEms)),
ar = list(f = ~1),
ne = list(f = ~1 + log(pop),
weights = W_powerlaw(maxlag = 5, normalize = TRUE)),
family = "NegBin1", subset = 2:52,
data = list(pop = population(measlesWeserEms)))
measlesFit1 <- hhh4(measlesWeserEms, control = measlesModel)
## use a Poisson distribution instead (just for comparison)
measlesFit2 <- update(measlesFit1, family = "Poisson")
## simulate realizations from these models during the second year
measlesSims <- lapply(X = list(NegBin = measlesFit1, Poisson = measlesFit2),
FUN = simulate, nsim = 50, seed = 1, subset = 53:104,
y.start = observed(measlesWeserEms)[52,])
## final size of the first model
plot(measlesSims[[1]])
## stratified by groups of districts
mygroups <- factor(substr(colnames(measlesWeserEms), 4, 4))
apply(aggregate(measlesSims[[1]], time = TRUE, units = mygroups), 1, summary)
plot(measlesSims[[1]], groups = mygroups)
## a class and plot-method for a list of simulations from different models
measlesSims <- as.hhh4simslist(measlesSims)
plot(measlesSims)
## simulated time series
plot(measlesSims, type = "time", individual = TRUE, ylim = c(0, 80))
## fan charts
if (requireNamespace("fanplot")) {
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,1))
plot(measlesSims, type = "fan", which = 1, ylim = c(0, 80), main = "NegBin",
key.args = list())
plot(measlesSims, type = "fan", which = 2, ylim = c(0, 80), main = "Poisson")
par(opar)
}
```